Commodities – Q4 Investment Update

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  • October 10, 2019

Gold has been the standout performer over the last quarter, rallying nearly 20% since May, to over $1,500 per ounce. This is the highest level since 2013. The moves came as a result of falling real interest rates, making precious metals relatively more attractive, given their 0% yield. Gold has also benefitted from its safe haven status, particularly at a time of increased geopolitical tensions where currencies are increasingly becoming a policy tool.

Towards the end of the quarter oil prices spiked on the news that half of the Saudi oil production capacity was taken offline following a drone strike. The price of oil was relatively flat over three months to mid-September; however, it has ended around 10-15% higher. Nevertheless, for the time being, it remains within the trading range that it has been in for the last several years.

Iron ore prices have fallen dramatically since July, although this was from a position of strength. At $80/ton, Iron Ore remains at the upper end of where it has historically traded over the last 5 years, indicating that it may have further to fall. A series of disruptions to supply over the last 6 months had pushed prices higher, however, now that these are working their way out, prices are likely to normalise.


Posted By Will Dickson

Chief Investment Officer Will Dickson is a Chartered Wealth Manager as part of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investment (CISI) qualification scheme. This recognition was obtained following an MSc in Finance and Investment from the University of Exeter, and an Accounting and Finance BSc from the University of Bath. Will’s exceptional talent is recognised by CityWire’s Wealth Manager, having been named as one of the UK’s Top 30 investment managers under the age of thirty for the last three years. Will manages and oversees P1’s range of investment portfolios. Working with the Investment Team, Will shapes the investment policy and fund selection for our Passive, Hybrid and Ethical and Sustainable portfolios. In conjunction with managing the fund portfolios, he oversees and our AIM Inheritance Tax and Tier 1 Investment Visa equity portfolios. Will has joint written articles with P1’s Head of Research, Dr Rayer. Their article “Hypothesis: Risk, like Mass and Energy, can neither be created nor destroyed” featured in the CISI’s The Review of Financial Markets. In addition to contributing to articles with Dr Rayer, Will often delivers P1 CISI Endorsed lectures to Independent Financial Advisers. You can see Will’s take on weekly investment news here.